Before we get to the prospects for democracy in China or the Middle East, it is necessary to put together a practical definition for “democracy.” The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) “tends to see democracy as a process involving political equality and popular control… preconditions for democracy include basic human security, rule of law and respect for basic human rights…” (1). There are those who might argue we don’t consistently have those things even here in the United States, so we might have to simplify the definition a bit. By the simplest definition, modern democracy would have to include universal suffrage and free and fair elections, and protection of civil rights… at least, so we’ll work with that.
Will China become democratic any time soon? The short is answer, is probably not. But, then again, democracies can arise suddenly and unexpectedly. One precondition for democracy put forth in the past was “a certain amount of wealth… a per capita income of approximately $250 in 1970 dollars” (2) and “China now has the world's fastest-growing economy and is undergoing what has been described as a second industrial revolution” (3). The problem, is, though, that China’s “rate of economic change hasn't been matched by political reform, with the Communist Party - the world's biggest political party - retaining its monopoly on power and maintaining strict control over the people. The authorities still crack down on any signs of opposition and send outspoken dissidents to labour camps” (3). An Amnesty International report said “China easily operates the most stringent capital punishment regime, with an estimated 3,400 executions” in 2004 (4). As long as China still puts down dissidents with violence, or imprisons them simply for speaking out, then the 2nd (freedom of expression) of Robert A. Dahl’s 8 criteria for democracy is out, as is Anthony Giddens’ 3rd of 3 (an effective legal framework of civil liberties or human rights). As long as China has “a longstanding set of policies restricting the information to which citizens are exposed” (5) by censoring, for example, internet access, then #6 (alternative sources of information) is gone. China has a single-party system, so the first (a multiparty system) of Anthony Giddens’ 3 criteria for democracy is out.
Barrington Moore, who listed five basic conditions for the development of democracy in his book, Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy, expresses “strong agreement with the Marxist thesis that a vigorous and independent class of town dwellers has been an indispensable element in the growth of parliamentary democracy. No bourgeois, no democracy” (6), so what these countries need before democratization is a significant class of property owners, even a growing middle class. The latter, in my opinion, might actually be a better indicator of a move toward, if not democracy, then some significant political change in another direction (such as Imperial Russia’s move toward communist revolution). What seems an indicator of a serious resistance to democratization (but, notably, a move toward capitalism) is a growing proletariat, a working class too busy with work, too overwrought by working conditions and food insecurity to even be able to work toward democracy. So, factories of jobs outsourced from the West in China, or purported near-slavery conditions for workers on, say, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai—these stand in the way of democracy, just as slavery did in the United States, but they line up quite well with capitalism.
So, what about the Middle East? What about Dubai, for example, where the Burj Khalifa, a powerful symbol of extravagance, was only completed after the “real estate bubble popped” (7) in that country, was only built because of exploitation of workers. The countries of the Middle East lack “the conditions, such as a democratic political history, high standards of living, and high literacy rates” (8) necessary for democratization. The Project on Middle East Democracy suggests that “democratic reform in the Middle East should be viewed not merely as a development objective, but as a strategic priority” (8) but maybe it would be easier to “allow Iraq to lapse into a purportedly pro-American despotism like Saudi Arabia and Egypt… and reform at some future date” (10). Given, the state of war in the Middle East, it seems unlikely that any “revolutionary break with the past” (i.e. Barrington Moore’s 5th condition for democratization) will be coming any time soon. In fact, it seems more likely that conditions in the Middle East would become more entrenched, in response to war, before they move toward democracy.
Now, we could ask if democracy will be coming to China or the Middle East ever, as opposed to soon, but what is important to realize here is why we want it to come at all. We want democracy in China and the Middle East not because we really, truly believe in democracy and think it is the best thing for everyone (though some of us may think that), but because “we seek democracy's practical dividends” (10); we seek trading partners, we seek peaceful relations; after all, democracies “do not seem to fight one another” (2). So, the question is, do we even need democracy in China and the Middle East? If it isn’t democracy, necessarily that we want to spread, but capitalism, do we need them to be democratic? As long as China’s economy is rising, we will borrow money from them and look the other way when they lock up dissidents. If we manage to get practical control over the resources (read: oil) in, say, Iraq, then will we care how democratic their government is? Or, will we allow despots to be in charge, as we have many times in the past, as long as they will sell us oil, or as long as they will take our outsourced jobs.
(1) http://www.idea.int/about/faq/index.cfm
(2) The Transition to Democracy: Proceedings of a Workshop (1991). http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=1755
(3) China Country Profile. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/country_profiles/1287798.stm
(4) Penketh, Anne. China Leads Death List as Number of Executions around the World Soars. 5 April 2005. http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0405-07.htm
(5) Zittrain, Jonathan and Benjamin Edelman. Empirical Analysis of Internet Filtering in China. http://cyber.law.harvard.edu/filtering/china/
(6) Barrington, Moore. Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy,
(7) “The Moment.” Time Magazine 18 January 2010. 17.
(8) Basham, Patrick and Christopher Preble. The Trouble with Democracy in the Middle East. 30 November 2003. http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3325
(9) Project on Middle East Democracy. Mission Statement. http://pomed.org/about-us/mission-statement/
(10) Hanson, Victor Davis. Democracy in the Middle East: It's the hardheaded solution. http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/001/769bfuqn.asp